NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, April 17, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) closed up 0.38% today at 103,851.88, narrowing its year-to-date gain to 1.03%. Despite the positive price action, market turnover tumbled by -42.26% (now at ?7.42B), indicating that today’s uptick may have been driven by relatively lighter volumes. Market breadth was evenly split, with 25 advancers versus 25 decliners, while traded volume saw a modest uptick to 370.58 million shares. Leading the day was ABBEYBDS—almost +10% and now up a stellar +198.67% YTD—while NIGERIAN BREWERIES oscillated sharply, hitting the tape as both a gainer and (by close) the largest loser. Unusual volume flagged insurers, brewers, and financials, hinting at sector rotation, while technical signals flagged a handful of both overbought and oversold conditions. Risk-off and risk-on trades clashed under the surface, setting up traders for sharp reversals and momentum continuations in the days to come.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market breadth: Evenly split at 1.00x — 25 gainers, 25 losers (indicative of indecision and possible inflection).
• Turnover Drop: Turnover down -42.26% from yesterday, as buying was less broad-based.
• Volume Shift: Volume increased for 74 companies, fell for 65—subtle rotation beneath surface stability.
• Naira weakens 0.05% (to ?1,605/$), a potential headwind for foreign inflows and margin-sensitive companies.

Top Gainers & Losers – Notables

• ABBEYBDS continues its parabolic run, +198.66% YTD and extremely overbought RSI (99.8) – traders should be cautious of short-term reversals.
• NIGERIAN BREW (NB): Volatility alert! Both a top gainer in intraday price and prominent on unusual volume (+198% vs. 90-day average). RSI over 70 (overbought) points to possible exhaustion soon.
• CORNERST not only features among top losers today but also on the YTD worst-performers, -34.60% YTD, now oversold on RSI (26.86)—watch for mean-reversion or capitulation.
• UNIVINSURE is one to watch: high unusual volume (481% > average) but with a -7.55% price drop, signaling possible distribution.

Leading YTD Gainers & Losers

Momentum Signal Deep-Dive

• Bullish crossovers:
  • ABCTRANS, ETI, FIDELITYBK: Closed above both 15D MA and showing upward price momentum—watch for institutional follow-through.
  • FIDELITYBK: Volume nearly doubled; dividend yield of 5.48% and bullish crossover could attract yield+momentum investors.
  • UPDCREIT: Dividend yield of 10.87% — among highest, with price breaking above short-term MA (defensive play?).
• Bearish crossovers:
  • SOVRENINS, ELLAHLAKES, NASCON, DANGSUGAR: Closing below 15D MA, under selling pressure. SOVRENINS pairs this with a top-loser status and high valuation (PE 27.95).
• Overbought/Overextended:
  • ABBEYBDS, NB: RSI readings at 99.8 and 72.06—classic overbought signals, especially when paired with strong price gains and unusual volume (NB).
• Oversold/Capitulation:
  • CORNERST features both on day's/top YTD losers and is oversold on RSI (26.86); may warrant contrarian watch for mean-reversion.

Unusual Volume Alerts

• UNIVINSURE: 481% above avg. volume, but price fell 7.55%—distribution phase? Potential final flush before a reversal or more pain ahead.
• NB: +197% volume, +9.86% on price and overbought. Potential blow-off top; consider profit-taking or tighter stops.
• MTNN, NGXGROUP: Strong volume signals rotation into large-cap/defensive names.
• REGALINS: Also flagged in retail activity with volume almost double the 90-day average. Yet, price dropped, highlighting retail selling pressure or distribution.

Contrarian Signals – Conflicting Indicators!

• NB (Nigerian Breweries): RSI 72.1 (overbought), price jump, unusual volume, but volatile sector. Overextension risk. Contrarians may eye short-term reversal.
• CORNERST: Oversold RSI (26.86), top YTD and today’s loser, but with a significant dividend yield of 5.28%. Is everyone too bearish?
• ABCTRANS: Positive price action, bullish MA crossover, yet MACD negative and volume only moderate; short squeeze or weak hands exiting?
• UPDC (YTD Gainers Table): +61.85% YTD but big 5D decline, and dividend yield is an eye-watering 34.25% – is the market bracing for a payout cut, or a rebound?

Sector Heatmap (Color-coded: Bullish, Bearish)

Dividend Yield – Beta Defensive Matrix

• Investor implications: FIDELITYBK, UPDCREIT, and CORNERST offer high yield with moderate/low beta—a classic refuge in choppy or sideways markets. UPDCREIT is particularly attractive for income strategies. Watch for turnarounds in CORNERST if sellers exhaust.

Institutional Clustering Alert

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share today—heavy fund rotation, even as price was flat and technicals remain under pressure; look out for possible accumulation or further liquidation soon.
• FIDELITYBK, ACCESSCORP: Large institutional and retail activity, both now showing bullish technicals—possible leadership handover in Banking sector.

Retail vs Institutional Trading – Activity Insights

• Institutions overwhelmingly drove value and volume today, despite low trade count—more block trading, classic at inflection points.
• Retail focused on quick in/out moves, evidenced by higher trade count but much lower volume and value—momentum-chasing and attempts to catch reversals.

Top 5 Most Traded (by Group)

• ACCESSCORP, FIDELITYBK, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO dominate both institutional and retail flows—suggests core focus/rotation from big money; any technical breakout confirmed by both groups is worthy of attention.
• REGALINS is a retail favorite today, but price fell -5.26% (possible retail capitulation).

Actionable Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum Traders: Consider trailing stops on ABBEYBDS and NB; both are extremely overextended (RSI, volume) and subject to whipsaws.
• Value Yield Hunters: FIDELITYBK and UPDCREIT are combining bullish breakouts with high yields—favoring income-oriented portfolios.
• Contrarian/Mean-Reversion: CORNERST (oversold, heavy sell-off), UNIVINSURE (distribution) and CAVERTON (double-digit YTD loss, but high yield) may be bottoming candidates—wait for reversal signal.
• Risk Controls: Be wary of the sharp drop in turnover—a reduced liquidity environment can exacerbate both upside and downside moves.
• Institutional Focus: Watch ZENITHBANK for possible accumulation or further block selling given hefty institutional presence today, especially as price action remains muted and technicals mixed.

Hidden/Notable Insights

• Multi-Signal Gainers: FIDELITYBK is showing bullish crossover, high institutional volume AND above-average dividend yield—a set-up for follow-through if market breadth improves.
• Retail/Institutional Overlap: Most heavily traded stocks reflect similar focus by both groups, increasing conviction on directions for ACCESSCORP and FIDELITYBK.
• Institutional Value Rotation: Lower trade count but higher volume/value signals big blocks and risk-off or risk-on positioning by funds.
• Insurance names: Saw very heavy volume (especially UNIVINSURE, REGALINS) paired with strong price declines—a final capitulation or sector in distress?
• Defensive Theme Emerging: Investors rotating into high dividend, low-beta names like UPDCREIT and FIDELITYBK as volatility/uncertainty picks up.
• Technical/Momentum Crosses: Several names triggering signals (15DMA crosses, RSI extremes) at the same time as high volume—potential for near-term reversals or breakouts.